The U.S. Court of International Trade has delivered a major setback to President Trump’s global tariff policies, a move that could benefit Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
On Wednesday, a three-judge panel—including a Trump appointee—unanimously ruled against Trump’s broad “reciprocal tariffs” that targeted nearly every country worldwide. This decision could remove some of the most impactful levies imposed under Trump’s trade agenda.
However, the administration is appealing the ruling and has secured a temporary stay that keeps the tariffs in place during the appeals process. Officials are also preparing alternative legal strategies to maintain the tariffs if the appeal fails.
Despite these efforts, experts suggest that Trump and congressional Republicans would gain more by accepting the court’s decision and shifting focus to other parts of the economic agenda.
While the court allowed certain tariffs, such as those on steel, to remain, it ruled that Trump lacked authority for the wide-reaching tariffs that affected numerous countries. These broad tariffs have drawn widespread criticism and contributed to economic uncertainty.
Polling data underscores the political risk for Republicans linked to the tariffs. A Marquette University poll found that only 37 percent of Americans approve of the tariffs, while 63 percent disapprove. Among independents—key voters in midterms—approval drops to 26 percent, with 74 percent opposing the tariffs.
Furthermore, 58 percent of Americans, including 70 percent of independents, believe tariffs harm the U.S. economy. Just 32 percent think they provide benefits. Another poll by Economist/YouGov found that 74 percent expect tariffs to increase prices, with only 8 percent believing prices would fall.
This negative view on tariffs also explains why Trump’s overall job approval is near even, but his economic approval lags. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s job approval stands at 48 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove, while his handling of the economy is underwater by 11 points (42 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove).
Tariff-related discontent is already affecting the midterm outlook. Recent polls from Fox News and NewsNation show Democrats leading Republicans by 5 to 7 points in generic congressional vote surveys, despite Democrats struggling to present a unified message.
Trump has done little to improve public opinion on tariffs. His recent comments suggesting Americans accept fewer products at higher prices have fueled criticism. He also contradicted his past claims that foreign companies, not Americans, pay the tariffs when he told Walmart to “eat the tariffs” after the retailer raised prices due to import duties.
The erratic tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, which hinders investment and slows economic growth. Last week alone, Trump announced new tariffs on the European Union and Apple products, only to retract them days later. This pattern of sudden changes has led to the nickname “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out).
This inconsistency makes the administration appear chaotic and undermines Republicans’ standing with voters. If tariffs remain in place, Democrats are likely to blame Republicans for economic troubles and rising prices.
Political strategist Karl Rove warned in the Wall Street Journal that the president’s unpredictable trade stance could damage Republicans in the midterms, as voters will hold Trump and his party responsible for higher costs.
Given these risks, the court ruling could be a valuable opportunity for the administration to reconsider its trade approach. Accepting the decision might help avoid further political damage and improve the GOP’s chances in upcoming elections.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman, authors of “America: Unite or Die,” contributed to this analysis.
